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Useful Advices - Divining the Future
Is it possible to divine the future? And if so, how do people go about it who do this for a living? Calculations involving probability and chance are more or less becoming standard part of almost any modern theory. There is hardly a better example to establish a good risk assessment method than to study the knowledge that the risk sector volunteers.
So what do big shot risk (read: investment) managers --who likely possess a healthy dose of scepticism-- take to be guidelines for assessing future scenarios? What does a risk specialist’s paranoid streak boil down to? And what makes their positive anticipations the justification of their p
So what do big shot risk (read: investment) managers --who likely possess a healthy dose of scepticism-- take to be guidelines for assessing future scenarios? What does a risk specialist’s paranoid streak boil down to? And what makes their positive anticipations the justification of their p
According to USFDA, a combination product is one composed of any combination of a drug and device; biological product and device; drug and biological product
rofession?
The most commonly used answer to both questions is of course the cliche ‘if ..... millionaire’ line. That is why it is not surprising that we bumped into theory after theory after theory, looking to understand what makes risk issues crucial to understanding what’s going on in the world at large.
First of all, aside from finding out how the risk professionals conjure up their theories, let's point out why it is about time we got round to the issue from a cultural perspective too. It is because recent cultural theories are pointing in the direction of a breakdown between the domain of neurological and paranormal research. Tha
The most commonly used answer to both questions is of course the cliche ‘if ..... millionaire’ line. That is why it is not surprising that we bumped into theory after theory after theory, looking to understand what makes risk issues crucial to understanding what’s going on in the world at large.
First of all, aside from finding out how the risk professionals conjure up their theories, let's point out why it is about time we got round to the issue from a cultural perspective too. It is because recent cultural theories are pointing in the direction of a breakdown between the domain of neurological and paranormal research. Tha
; or drug, device, and biological product and fixed dose combination would include two or more combinations of drug.
Examples of combination products may in
Examples of combination products may in
t means that people generally are open to futuristic approaches. History and mythology explain the present quite adequately, but with regard to the future all we can really do is guess. The hunt is on now for finding out how to make ‘informed’ guesses.
The business world is convinced of the merits of risk models predicting the future because it makes a tonne of money from them. Success stories lead to organizations’ intensified efforts to not fall behind. It is an art to revoke bad scenarios and turning them into outcomes that we all wish for. Risk managers eagerly play into uncertainties and pretend to redress negative aspects. They r
The business world is convinced of the merits of risk models predicting the future because it makes a tonne of money from them. Success stories lead to organizations’ intensified efforts to not fall behind. It is an art to revoke bad scenarios and turning them into outcomes that we all wish for. Risk managers eagerly play into uncertainties and pretend to redress negative aspects. They r
lude drug-coated devices, drugs packaged with delivery devices in medical kits, and drugs and devices packaged separately but intended to be used together.
e-brand business decisions as risk policies.
Risk management first started to attract attention of people outside the business world when some of its star experts claimed staunch disasters had been predicted by its models, starting with the Asian currency crises in 1997, followed by the September 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York. Both these events could have been prevented had the information not been fragmented, policymakers not been so hung up about their jurisprudence and had organizations not fouled up structurally.
One risk expert, Richard Slaughter, who wrote Else, a book that was published in 2002, offers both an explanation
Risk management first started to attract attention of people outside the business world when some of its star experts claimed staunch disasters had been predicted by its models, starting with the Asian currency crises in 1997, followed by the September 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York. Both these events could have been prevented had the information not been fragmented, policymakers not been so hung up about their jurisprudence and had organizations not fouled up structurally.
One risk expert, Richard Slaughter, who wrote Else, a book that was published in 2002, offers both an explanation
here is enormous increase in the number of combination products entering the market in the recent years. Combination products have proven advantages but fixe
f the issues involved in risk assessment and what he calls ‘a future context map’. He, like many other risk specialists, broaches the issues undermining the well being of society from a socially structured angle. His colleague Ulrich Beck defines risk as ‘the modern approach to foresee and control the future consequences of human action’. Interestingly, he narrows down the territory by showing how unlimited it is, in that this human action involves ‘unintended consequences of radicalized modernization’.
Risk managers do one thing that a modern day writer also excels in – they write scenarios. The term was sourced by a novelist and scre
Risk managers do one thing that a modern day writer also excels in – they write scenarios. The term was sourced by a novelist and scre
d dose combinations are still in the process of convincing regulatory authority on their advantages over the single ingredient formulations.
Combination pro
Combination pro
enwriter, Leo Rosten, who happened to freelance at a company called RAND Corporation during the time that the spiritual father of Risk Management, Herman Kahn, a physicist, mathematician, and nuclear strategist was busy writing scenarios there in the 1940s. Incidentally, Kahn subsequently founded his own foundation, the Hudson Institute in 1961. The example of Kahn was first applied by two Shell employees Ted Newland and Pierre Wack, who in the late 1960s and early 1970s pioneered the company’s risk approach by imagining where Shell as a company was going in years ahead and where the world was going.
Wack, who died recently, became a l
Wack, who died recently, became a l
ucts have become life saving products for the pharmaceutical companies who doesn’t have many innovative molecules in their product pipeline and have been inc
eader in the risk sector, put the art of scenario writing at the centre of any adequate risk strategy. “Scenarios transform information into perceptions... It is a creative experience that generates an 'Aha!' ... and leads to strategic insights beyond the mind's previous reach," he once said.
The quest to involve every day life scenarios that are not immediately available in normal financial systems which depend on a categorization of the world in terms of industrial and economic parameters, became highly topical after 2002. One immediate consequence of the success of risk specialists in predicting crises such as the Asian currency cri
The quest to involve every day life scenarios that are not immediately available in normal financial systems which depend on a categorization of the world in terms of industrial and economic parameters, became highly topical after 2002. One immediate consequence of the success of risk specialists in predicting crises such as the Asian currency cri
easingly used in the product life cycle management. Even the companies having product patents are trying to extend their product life cycle through the combi
es and the 9/11 has been the further maturing of the discipline itself. It is no longer possible to group it into a political entity or into any other social category. Risk is a powerful mobilizing agent however, which propels action by both those in power and the people faced with threats.
The scenarios that risk models conjure up more or less all involve fictitious events and our propensity to take the hypothetical scenarios seriously has grown stronger as risk managers underlined the seriousness of their gospel in the wake of disasters. A first issue people noted after 1997 and 2002 is that our perception of time appeared to have un
The scenarios that risk models conjure up more or less all involve fictitious events and our propensity to take the hypothetical scenarios seriously has grown stronger as risk managers underlined the seriousness of their gospel in the wake of disasters. A first issue people noted after 1997 and 2002 is that our perception of time appeared to have un
nation products and maximize the revenues. But the companies involved in this practice are overlooking that they are burdening the patients both economically
dergone a review. “The onrushing future – something non existent, constructed and fictitious – had now displaced the past as an influence on the present”, according to Beck.
One result was the greater popularity of chaos and systems theory. “Reflecting the planners’ belief that the best possible future given if fictitious could be detected and actualised. Risks are afterall, a type of virtual reality, real virtuality.”, Beck asserts. Phrases associated with the trend include ‘contextual thinking’, ‘intertextuality’, ‘calculability’. “When you are trying to find that middle ground between paralysis and denial, you can’t entertain 15 sce
One result was the greater popularity of chaos and systems theory. “Reflecting the planners’ belief that the best possible future given if fictitious could be detected and actualised. Risks are afterall, a type of virtual reality, real virtuality.”, Beck asserts. Phrases associated with the trend include ‘contextual thinking’, ‘intertextuality’, ‘calculability’. “When you are trying to find that middle ground between paralysis and denial, you can’t entertain 15 sce
and physically. They need to rightly judge the benefits of the combination products and they have to even look at the risks involved when combining the produ
narios meaningfully and actually do something. At the same time, you don’t want to converge on one version of the future [but] you should be able to capture 80 percent or more of the most important uncertainties in the landscape. The world will always throw some curve balls at you,” says Chris Ertel, a senior practitioner from Global Business Network in San Francisco which specialises in scenario planning.
So what would a risk manager take into account, trying to circumvent a false representation of power structures and consequences of human actions? If millions of investments are involved, the incentive to have a proper perspective of
So what would a risk manager take into account, trying to circumvent a false representation of power structures and consequences of human actions? If millions of investments are involved, the incentive to have a proper perspective of
ts. Some of the combination products were well accepted by physicians while others suffered. Companies involved in development of combination products are fi
the world impacting business is rather important. But risk management is also widely in use in normal businesses and non profit organizations, not least because of the efforts of Peter Schwartz who used to be responsible for risk at Shell and who wrote a landmark book entitled ‘The Art of the Long View’. The answer to this question are mostly deeply philosophical rather than practical in nature. Beck talks about a Post Political Technocratic World Society. And others mostly talk in keyword type riddles. One buzzword is ‘reflexive’. Firmly founded in post modern philosophy, it highlights an alternative to the dead end gospel preached by
ding difficulty in defining their combination products and facing various challenges from selecting a combination to marketing it.
Following aspects would a
Following aspects would a
relativists.
One very practical approach was outlined in an interview by Maryln Walton, a scenario team leader at Herman Miller, a specialist agency in work environments, recently published in See. In answer to the question why his company was interested in scenario planning, he said “The [..] angle is to explore how work will change. We wanted scenario thinking to impact both broader strategic issues within the company and also our design and development strategy. We wanted to find out how present realities would shape future ones and what product designers should be thinking about. [..] A key beginning is to choose and orient a commi
One very practical approach was outlined in an interview by Maryln Walton, a scenario team leader at Herman Miller, a specialist agency in work environments, recently published in See. In answer to the question why his company was interested in scenario planning, he said “The [..] angle is to explore how work will change. We wanted scenario thinking to impact both broader strategic issues within the company and also our design and development strategy. We wanted to find out how present realities would shape future ones and what product designers should be thinking about. [..] A key beginning is to choose and orient a commi
dd to the challenges in developing combination products:
Which markets to tap where the combination products can do fairly well?
Which combination prod
Which markets to tap where the combination products can do fairly well?
Which combination prod
tted cross functional team. We include a variety of backgrounds and different kinds of thinking and skill sets. We do that for a couple of reasons – to develop broad thinking skills and to spread the experience into as many parts of the organization as we can. In the end, I imagine we exposed almost 500 people to scenario planning and a new way of thinking about the future. The next step is to decide on the focal question. Once the focal question is decided on, we try to think about the key forces of change, and in doing that we expose the gaps in our knowledge—which leads us to research and interviewing experts. [..] The next step is t
cts are meaningful and rational?
Which therapeutic categories to select?
Which Combinations can address unmet needs of the patients?
Do combin
Which therapeutic categories to select?
Which Combinations can address unmet needs of the patients?
Do combin
o convene in a two day meeting with experts.”
That sounds pretty straightforward and logical. There have been few occasions in which the systems have been taken to the test, which is a blessing of course because most risk scenarios involve disasters. But the crises that are evaluated have taught us first and foremost that for a model to be truly effective, its combination with ‘manufactured uncertainty’ resembles the unlikely synthesis of knowledge and unawareness. It would be impossible to speculate what a particular most optimal balance is and there are no direct laws here that can be considered as cast in stone.
Nevertheless it pro
That sounds pretty straightforward and logical. There have been few occasions in which the systems have been taken to the test, which is a blessing of course because most risk scenarios involve disasters. But the crises that are evaluated have taught us first and foremost that for a model to be truly effective, its combination with ‘manufactured uncertainty’ resembles the unlikely synthesis of knowledge and unawareness. It would be impossible to speculate what a particular most optimal balance is and there are no direct laws here that can be considered as cast in stone.
Nevertheless it pro
tions increase the patient compliance?
What would be the developing cost?
How to tackle the risks encountered during combination product developmen
What would be the developing cost?
How to tackle the risks encountered during combination product developmen
ably works somewhat similar to predicting fashion trends, something that virtually any woman displays a natural talent for. Inputting historic data on colors shapes and sizes and conjuring up what’s next is likely going to be easy compared to the complexity of the wider reality. However, conjectures, reflexes, patterns, self reference and repetition are only a few phenomena that the post modern philosophy has been preparing us for since the early 1970s. Reflexive proponents apparently have no business being submerged under the all impending knowledge that the future is one mass of incalculable hazardous events. Instead they aim to carve
t?
As combination products don't fit into the traditional categories of drugs, medical devices, or biological products, the USFDA is in the process of devel
As combination products don't fit into the traditional categories of drugs, medical devices, or biological products, the USFDA is in the process of devel
out a politically mouldable impulse that they propose is directly triggered by fabricated uncertainty.
Aside from the business sector, which we only look at because it is a good indicator to see if risk managers can be taken seriously, there are a few art projects that cover fabricated uncertainties in relation to reality. One of those is Hexen 2039, a project exploring the relationship between the military and occult theories for psychological warfare. The project is centered around a fictitional character living in 2039, an alter ego of Susan Treister, the artist, who is part of an institute of Militronics and Advanced Time Interven
Aside from the business sector, which we only look at because it is a good indicator to see if risk managers can be taken seriously, there are a few art projects that cover fabricated uncertainties in relation to reality. One of those is Hexen 2039, a project exploring the relationship between the military and occult theories for psychological warfare. The project is centered around a fictitional character living in 2039, an alter ego of Susan Treister, the artist, who is part of an institute of Militronics and Advanced Time Interven
ping new procedures for reviewing their safety, efficacy and quality.
Professional from academic institutions, pharmaceutical industries, health care indust
Professional from academic institutions, pharmaceutical industries, health care indust
tionality (a fictional 21st Century organization) and who travels back in time regularly. The character is at once an attraction and a study object, because the project derives a ton of real information about past military organizations and historical events involving the use of the occult and hidden informational techniques. This means that the fiction is not all that implausible.
In the year 2039, the alter ego, who is called Rosalind Brodsky, travels to an assignment at West Point U.S. Military Academy, situated on the banks of the Hudson River, 50 miles north of Manhattan in New York State. Following investigations into the US Army
In the year 2039, the alter ego, who is called Rosalind Brodsky, travels to an assignment at West Point U.S. Military Academy, situated on the banks of the Hudson River, 50 miles north of Manhattan in New York State. Following investigations into the US Army
y and representatives from various regulatory agencies are working out to design the regulatory requirements for manufacture and sale of combination products
Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Command (Psyop) based at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the assignment at West Point is part of an investigation into early forms of audio hypnosis or silent sounds technologies altering the brain’s EEG pattersn, used for military purposes.
Sounds totally sci fi? It is because it is sci fi! But the project will baffle you as it links real historic details to a probable future. For instance, Brodsky casually finds out that in 1939 the Military Academy was used as the setting for the witch’s tower scene in the film the Wizard of Oz. It’s among the least impressive of the project’s facts, and Treist
Sounds totally sci fi? It is because it is sci fi! But the project will baffle you as it links real historic details to a probable future. For instance, Brodsky casually finds out that in 1939 the Military Academy was used as the setting for the witch’s tower scene in the film the Wizard of Oz. It’s among the least impressive of the project’s facts, and Treist
.
As there is an increasing trend of the combination products companies manufacturing such products should be able to tackle the problems involved in the de
As there is an increasing trend of the combination products companies manufacturing such products should be able to tackle the problems involved in the de
er establishes an uncanny relationship between Hollywood and the US military. It appears that the military used remote viewing techniques (projecting human consciousness from one place to another and to gain accurate information about remote and hidden locations) that were meticulously detailed in a film shot not far from the particular military institution involved. How much more uncanny can it get? The facts that Treister outlines throw up a mountain of moral implications, but the military and possible claims to the future are of course something completely different compared to civilian life.
When a high profile scenario is leaked t
When a high profile scenario is leaked t
elopment. They need to be wiser in analyzing the market trends and the regulatory requirements.
Companies that provide selfless information through particip
Companies that provide selfless information through particip
o the public and is subsequently challenged by other professionals, the implications are usually rather damaging. But generally, risk experts are becoming more accepted in the public domain. “Scenario planning presents itself on the surface as a lofty intellectual activity, but in the end it really is all about engaging people and connecting people with their passions and their curiosity about the world and how it’s changing”, says Chris Ertel. A much sought after quality in decision makers is ‘contextual intelligence’, the ability to think laterally, which sort of finds itself at the intersection of intellect and emotional intelligence
tion in industry events and feedback to regulatory authorities would be able to face the challenges and will be successful in developing combination products
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